THE 2026 HOUSING OUTLOOK IS BEING FRAMED AS A REBOUND YEAR, NOT A BOOM YEAR. ECONOMISTS SAY INVENTORY IS STARTING TO IMPROVE AS THE LOCK IN EFFECT GRADUALLY EASES AND MORE HOMEOWNERS LIST WHEN LIFE CHANGES FORCE A MOVE. NAR CHIEF ECONOMIST LAWRENCE YUN PROJECTS EXISTING HOME SALES COULD RISE BY ABOUT 14 PERCENT IN 2026. YUN ALSO EXPECTS HOME PRICES TO INCREASE MODESTLY, AROUND 2 TO 3 PERCENT, WHICH WOULD BE CLOSER TO A NORMAL PACE.

ON THE NEW CONSTRUCTION SIDE, ECONOMISTS SAY BUILDERS CAN HELP AFFORDABILITY, BUT THE COUNTRY IS STILL DEALING WITH A LONG RUNNING HOUSING SHORTAGE. ANOTHER POINT BEING WATCHED: IN SOME AREAS, THE MEDIAN RESALE HOME IS NOW PRICIER THAN THE MEDIAN NEW BUILD, PARTLY DUE TO INCENTIVES AND WHERE NEW HOMES ARE BEING BUILT. MORTGAGE RATES REMAIN THE KEY VARIABLE, SINCE A ONE POINT DROP COULD BRING MILLIONS MORE HOUSEHOLDS INTO BUYING RANGE.